“ Producers have to take note that the production possibilities for summer grain that are currently circulated in the field, are only preliminary figures.  These production possibilities were compiled in advance for a specific purpose and will most probably change as new information on the production, consumption and ending stocks becomes available, “ said Mr. Bully Botma, Chairman of Grain SA today in Bothaville.

The production possibilities for summer grain are normally compiled in June every year because, at that stage, there is more clarity about the crop size, the consumption and the expected ending stocks. The determination of the production possibilities is also done in deliberation with the representatives of the involved industries.

Regarding sorghum, the latest figures show that the expected ending stock on 31 March 2006 may be about 172 000 tons. This is close to the annual consumption of sorghum in the food market. If a provision for a pipeline requirement of 30 000 tons is made, it implies that the production possibility for sorghum for the coming season is very limited.

In the case of white and yellow maize, the announced production possibilities have already become obsolete since it was based on the second crop estimate. The third crop estimate was about 400 000 tons more than the second estimate. Further, it can be accepted that if producers decrease their maize plantings drastically in the coming season, plantings will probably be done on fallow and/or high potential lands. This can increase the potential yield and cause a further decline in the production possibilities, in terms of hectares.

“Irrespective of the announced production possibilities, producers of especially groundnuts and sorghum, must make sure they have a contract before they plant these crops,” Mr. Botma said.

Produksieruimte vir somergewasse

“Produsente moet asseblief daarop let dat die produksieruimtes vir somergewasse wat tot dusver in die veld bekendgemaak is, bloot voorlopige syfers is.  Hierdie produksieruimtes was vir ‘n spesifieke doel voortydig saamgestel en sal in alle waarskynlikheid nog verander namate meer inligting oor verbruik, produksie en oordragvoorrade bekend raak,” het mnr Bully Botma, Voorsitter van Graan SA vandag in Bothaville gesê.

Die produksieruimtes vir somergewasse word normaalweg elke jaar in Junie saamgestel omdat daar op daardie stadium groter duidelikheid is oor verwagte oesgroottes, verbruik en oordragvoorrade.  Die bepaling van produksieruimtes geskied ook in oorleg met die betrokke bedrywe en verteenwoordigers van die handel in daardie bedrywe.

Wat sorghum spesifiek betref, wys die jongste syfers daarop dat die verwagte oordragvoorraad op 30 Maart 2006 ongeveer 172 000 ton kan wees.  Dit is baie naby aan die jaarlikse verbruik van sorghum in die voedselmark.  As daar vir ‘n 30 000 ton pyplynvoorraad voorsiening gemaak word, beteken dit dat die produksieruimte vir sorghum uiters beperk is.

In die geval van wit- en geelmielies is die produksieruimtes wat bekendgemaak is, reeds verouderd omdat dit gebaseer was op die tweede oesskatting.  Die derde oesskatting was ongeveer 400 000 ton meer as die tweede skatting.  Verder kan aanvaar word dat indien produsente hulle mielie-aanplantings in die komende seisoen drasties gaan afskaal, aanplantings waarskynlik op oorlêlande en/of lande met die hoogste potensiaal gaan geskied.  Dit kan die potensiële opbrengs verhoog en sodoende die produksieruimte in terme van hektare, nog verder verminder.

“Ongeag die produksieruimtes wat tot dusver bekendgemaak is, moet produsente van veral grondbone en sorghum seker maak dat hulle ‘n kontrak het voordat hulle die genoemde gewasse plant,” het mnr Botma gesê.