By Andy Swenson, Farm Management Specialist, North Dakota State University Extension Service

September is the month to plant winter wheat, but the vast majority of producers in North Dakota choose to plant all or most of their wheat in the spring. What will winter wheat planting be this year?

One thing I have noticed when constructing projected crop budgets during the past several years is that winter wheat is becoming more competitive with spring wheat in several areas of the state.
The main reason is higher winter wheat yields. There also is the advantage of lower seed and herbicide costs. A look at acreage plantings reinforces this observation to a degree. Winter wheat planting the past three years (2004 through 2006) has averaged 245,000 acres, compared with the average during the previous 10 years (1994 through 2003) of 85,000 acres. However, recent plantings are still far less than the all-time high period of
1984 through 1986. During that period, more than 500,000 acres were planted each year, but even that is miniscule compared with the 6 to 7 million acres of hard red spring wheat planted in recent years.

Production risk always has been the major concern holding down winter wheat acres in North Dakota. The incidence of acreage abandonment (acres planted but not harvested for grain) has decreased slowly. During the most recent 30-, 20- and 10-year periods, it has gone from 18 percent to 15 percent and 13 percent, respectively. Acreage abandonment for spring wheat has averaged between 4 percent and 5 percent during the same time periods.

When comparing winter wheat with spring wheat, one should consider yields on a per-planted acre. This incorporates the differences in acreage abandonment. Winter wheat has a higher yield per planted acre than spring wheat in all regions of the state except the Red River Valley. Less than 5,000 acres annually are grown in the six counties that abut the Red River, compared with more than 1.2 million acres of spring wheat.

However, a higher yield for winter wheat does not necessarily mean it is more profitable than spring wheat. Spring wheat is worth more than winter wheat. The marketing year average price of winter wheat has ranged from 79 percent to 100 percent of spring wheat during the 10 years from 1996 through 2005. On average, spring wheat sold for $3.32 per bushel, compared with $2.92 for winter wheat, which is 88 percent of the spring wheat price.
Surprisingly, the loan rate, which provides a revenue safety net per bushel produced, was very similar between winter wheat and spring wheat in 2006. In fact, it was slightly higher for winter wheat in a quarter of all North Dakota counties.

Using 2006 budgets and the most recent seven-year average yields per planted acre, winter wheat projected a $7 profit advantage over spring wheat in the north-central and southwestern regions of the state. These large multicounty areas have the most winter wheat acres, averaging about 40,000 acres during the past seven years. However, spring wheat acres averaged more than a million acres in each region.

The five-county south-central region, consisting of Burleigh, Emmons, Kidder, Logan, McIntosh and Sheridan counties, projected a net return $11 greater than spring wheat. Surprisingly, winter wheat in the northwestern region of the state also had a profit advantage over spring wheat. However, winter wheat acres are very low in that region, so yield history is not as well established.
Other regions of the state projected little benefit or a profit disadvantage in raising winter wheat compared with spring wheat.

Although it looks to be more profitable in some regions, there are reasons why winter wheat acres have not increased more rapidly. Winter wheat has more production risk. Other considerations are how the winter-seeded crop fits in with the planting and harvesting of other crops in the rotation. Also, in September, most farmers are in a harvest, not planting, mindset.