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February 16, 2006
Source:
U.S. National Weather
Service - Climate Prediction Center
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Depicts general, large-scale trends based on
subjectively derived probabilities guided by
numerous indicators, including short- and long-range
statistical and dynamical forecasts. Short-term
events - such as individual storms - cannot be
accurately forecast more than a few days in advance,
so use caution if using this outlook for
applications - such as crops - that can be affected
by such events. "Ongoing" drought areas
are
approximated from the Drought Monitor (D1 to D4).
For weekly drought updates, see the latest Drought
Monitor map and text.
NOTE: the green improvement areas imply at least a
1-category improvement in the Drought Monitor
intensity levels, but do not necessarily imply
drought elimination. |
Latest
Seasonal Assessment
A dearth of rain
and snow into February promoted intensifying drought across the
Southwest from Arizona into west Texas and Oklahoma, and the
odds favor continued drought across the region into May, if not
beyond.
Although
shorter-range forecasts show at least a temporary change to a
wetter pattern during the last half of February in Arizona and
New Mexico, significant drought relief is not expected.
The seasonal
temperature and precipitation outlooks for March-May point to
the likelihood for above-normal temperatures and below-normal
precipitation, supporting drought continuation well into spring.
Reservoir storage
across much of the Southwest remains in good condition thanks to
last year’s storms, but the ongoing drought poses a threat to
upcoming spring and summer streamflows, as well as agriculture.
Wildfire danger
remains a major concern across the region.
In addition, there
is a risk that the drought currently affecting the southern
Plains could spread northward across Kansas and eastern Colorado
and merge with the drought in Nebraska and Iowa.
The odds for
improvement continue to look better to the east, with more
moisture on tap for eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma, as
well as Arkansas.
Nevertheless, with
12-month rainfall deficits exceeding 20 inches in the northeast
Texas-southeast Oklahoma region, drought-ending rains are
unlikely anytime soon.
Ongoing drought,
but with some improvement, is seen for Illinois and eastern
Iowa.
A large storm
system near the start of the forecast period on February 15-16
was bringing widespread moisture to the region, but twelve-month
precipitation deficits of 12 inches and greater from northern
Illinois into eastern Iowa mean that this region is also a long
ways from seeing an end to their drought.
In the Southeast,
heavy rains in early February ended short-term dryness concerns,
but the seasonal and monthly forecasts of below-normal rains
suggest increased risk for drought from Florida into southern
Georgia. |
