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Australian Oilseeds Federation - Canola and and soybean crop report April 2007 (excerpts)

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Australia
April 16, 2007

Source: Australian Oilseeds Federation

Canola 2007/08

Our first estimates for the 2007/08 canola crop are for a 1.39 million tonne crop. However, this is dependent on a wide spread seasonal break in late April/early May.

The forecast for NSW is for a significant recovery on last year, although this is still well below production levels of the late 1990s. However, this is dependent on an early break to the season and a substantial quantity of rain is needed by early May to see the estimated area planted. Reflecting the mood across eastern Australia, growers would like to grow canola, but are unlikely to take the risk if it is a late season. While prices are good, growers are feeling the impact of the poor season in 2006/07, lack of subsoil
moisture and high fertilizer prices. This will see growers be risk adverse and see reduced levels of dry sowing. Across the state, sub soil moisture levels are virtually nonexistent except where there has been storm rain.

While Victorian growers are also waiting for opening rain, given the winter dominant rainfall pattern, this may not need to be as substantive as NSW to kick-start planting. April has been dry, with periods of high temperatures. Growers are looking to put canola into the rotation, which should see canola area maintained at levels of previous years. Like NSW, rotation and prices are supporting factors, but lack of cashflow and high costs are limiting this. Rain is needed by mid May to see estimated area planted realised. There may be some upside if there is good rain by mid May.

Parts of South Australia such as the Eyre Peninsula and mid North have received good rain in March, although this has been followed by high temperatures in April. There is good interest in canola in the lower rainfall regions, with growers looking to plant in April. The south east is more uncertain following crop failures last season. Overall, estimates have been left in line with previous years.

The positive price outlook for canola prices based on forward contracts is supportive of canola plantings in
Western Australia. Sub soil moisture is reasonable along the south coast and very good immediately around
Esperance. It is expected that planting will commence shortly along the South coast, while the rest of the state is
relatively dry and waiting for opening rains. Northern and Eastern growers who experienced a hard time last year are likely to plant less canola in favour of cereals, while Western, Great Southern and South Coast growers may
plant similar or more hectares compared to last year mainly due to the price. Overall, area is estimated at slightly below (down 2.5%) on last year however an early break could see upside to this estimate.

Soybeans 2006/07

Estimates for the soybean crop have been revised down slightly, reflecting the continuing dry conditions.

The Queensland crop is pretty much unchanged from last month, with exception of area being revised down in the Darling Downs region. Harvest has just commenced. The NSW crop is dominated by production on the north
coast. Harvest has commenced and crops are showing good yields. The inland areas continue to suffer from lack of water and both area and yield has been revised down. The small crop in the Riverina is looking good and with harvest having commenced, yields have been revised up.

Virtual soybean site - http://www.australianoilseeds.com/agronomy_centre/the_virtual_soybean_crop

 

 

 

 

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