Rome, Italy
December 6, 2007
Vulnerable populations in developing countries
hurt most
FAO’s latest forecast puts
world cereal production in 2007 at 2 101 million tonnes, with
most of the increase in coarse grains, especially maize in the
United States.
The figure represents a slight downward revision since the UN
agency’s November forecast, but still indicates a record level
of production, up 4.6 percent from last year.
International cereal prices in November remained high and
volatile, however, reflecting sustained demand, particularly
from the biofuels industry, coupled with historically low levels
of stocks and insufficient increases in production, mainly of
wheat, in exporting countries, according to FAO’s latest
Crop Prospects and Food Situation report.
Food inflation hits most vulnerable
Rises in international prices have translated into higher retail
prices of basic foods in many countries, according to the
report.
Most affected by the food inflation are those developing
countries that depend heavily on imports to cover their cereal
consumption requirements. Low-income population groups are
anticipated to bear the heaviest burden, because their daily
energy intake depends more on cereal-based products and the
share of food in their total expenditures is high, the report
says.
LIFDCs’ cereal consumption to decline
For the group of Low-Income Food-Deficit countries (LIFDCs),
2007 cereal production is forecast to increase only marginally,
the report says, adding that if the largest countries, China and
India, are excluded, overall cereal output for the remaining
countries is expected to register a significant decline.
Together with an anticipated reduction in quantities imported by
these countries in 2007/08, this will lead to lower per caput
cereal food and feed consumption.
Despite the smaller volumes to be imported from world markets,
the cereal import bill of LIFDCs will, however, increase sharply
for the second consecutive year due to higher prices and freight
rates.
Some 2007 cereal harvests still underway
Good crops, although slightly lower than last year’s bumper
harvests, are being gathered in most of the Sahel and Eastern
African countries, with the exceptions of Senegal, Cape Verde
and Somalia. Production is also anticipated to decline
significantly in Nigeria, which could affect cereal prices in
the region.
In Far East Asia, despite floods, landslides and cyclones during
the growing season in several countries, record 2007 cereal
output has been obtained, the report says.
2008 global wheat outlook favourable
Early prospects for the 2008 wheat crop are favourable,
according to the report. With winter wheat planting virtually
complete in the northern hemisphere, latest estimates point to a
significant increase in the global wheat area, in response to
current high prices and the removal of the compulsory land
set-aside for 2008 in the European Union, the world’s largest
producer. Previously, the EU required that farmers leave 10
percent of their land fallow.
Countries in crisis
Emergency food aid is needed in Bangladesh, where the
livelihoods of over 8.5 million people were adversely affected
by Cyclone Sidr in mid-November.
In Zimbabwe, with world-record-level inflation of 7 983 percent,
the economic crisis continues to deepen, affecting an estimated
4.1 million food insecure people. In Lesotho and Swaziland, poor
cereal harvests for the third year in a row due to droughts
preclude an improvement in the food security of these countries,
already afflicted by problems of poverty and HIV/AIDS.
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo large numbers of people
affected by the continuing conflict need food assistance. Food
aid is also needed in Burundi following a poor 2007 harvest,
combined with resettlement of returnees and IDPs.
According to the report, 37 countries worldwide are currently
facing food crises.
Complete list of countries in need of assistance. |
