Note: Estimates were calculated for all countries by simply multiplying USDA PS&D "Area Harvested" estimates by "Average Estimated Seed Variable Cost of Production" based on data from Global Insight, Inc. Because planted area and abandonment rates were not available, the data have a slight downward bias. The variable cost of production data seeks to capture the cost of purchased seed as well as the opportunity cost of farm-saved seed (the local market price of the grain or oilseed in question). Seed cost of production data in US dollars per planted hectare are available from Global Insight for countries that together represent 55 percent of world total area for wheat, 75 percent for corn, 73 percent for rice, 88 percent for soy, 34 percent for barley, 43 percent for sorghum, 70 percent for cotton, 42 percent for sunflower, and 87 percent for rapeseed/colza. Regional average costs of production from available countries were applied to countries for which no cost of production estimates were available. For country/crop combinations with no regional proxy, the average cost of production for all available countries was used. Despite the obvious short-comings of this crude method, it is hoped that the results provide an idea of market size (including informal markets) and growth trends.

The surge in 1996 –1997 and subsequent decline is explained by both changes in area and seed costs. In 1996, world total area planted to wheat grew about 5 percent (mainly due to increased area in China, Russia and the United States). That same year, world area planted to corn also grew about 5 percent (mainly in China, the United States and Mexico) and has remained relatively stable. Soy area surged in 1997 by almost 10 percent (largely attributable to Brazil and the United States) and has continued to grow. Meanwhile, the unweighted average seed cost of production for rice rose from $47 per hectare in 1992 to $66 per hectare in 1996, then fell to $60 per hectare by 1998. The seed cost per hectare for soybeans rose from $42 in 1992 to $58 in 1996, then fell to $47 by 1999. The respective seed costs for corn were $37, $46 and $40. Average seed costs for other crops remained remarkably stable over the decade, which suggests that in many cases, depreciating currencies relative to the dollar were offset by rising seed prices.

The estimated annual value of internationally traded field crop seeds, of the kinds featured in the chart above, is about $1 billion – only 4 percent of the total world market. Corn seed accounts for three-fourths of internationally traded field crop seeds by value (roughly $780 million in MY 2001/02) and amounts to 12 percent of world corn seed.