Note: No single source exists, so the following methodology was used to estimate U.S. seed consumption: For maize, oilseeds, other feed grain and cereals, cotton and sugar beets, consumption estimates were calculated on yearly cost of production data (seed cost per acre) and area harvested. Area planted was not used because it is not available for other countries and the ultimate goal is to build a worldwide database. Ignoring abandoned area could make these crops’ seed markets underestimated by as much as 10 percent in some years. For horticultural seeds and pulses (beans and peas), a ratio of total seed market value to the value of total production was estimated using the Bureau of Economic Analysis Input-Output 1997 benchmark data (the ratios are 0.05 for sugarbeets and floraculture, 0.09 for beans, lentils and peas, and 0.08 for vegetables). The ratios were assumed fixed and applied to the total value of U.S. production (according to NASS and ERS) for those crops in the years 1992-2002. Turf and forage seed includes only Kentucky blue grass, fescue, ryegrass, alfalfa, orchard grass and sudan grass. Production data is available from the agricultural census of 1992 and 1997. The compound annual growth rate was applied to the years in between. After subtracting net exports of each kind, the remainder was multiplied by April prices collected by NASS. Industry sources have confirmed the magnitudes and trends produced using this methodology and illustrated above.

The chart above is based on estimated consumption. The United States is a net exporter of planting seed, with annual exports and imports of roughly $800 million and $400 million, respectively. Changes in stocks are hard to estimate, but adding net exports to the consumption data and assuming small or no changes in stocks puts domestic planting seed production over $8 billion. U.S. seed production in 2002 was therefore twice as large as the value of U.S. cotton production ($3.6 billion according to NASS), larger than wheat production ($5.9 billion), over half the value of U.S. soybean production ($14.8 billion) and at least a third as large as U.S. corn production ($21.2 billion). Seed, when considered as a distinct segment of American agriculture or as a single "crop," clearly ranks among the largest.

Maize seed is the largest segment of the domestic planting seed market, valued at $2.2 billion in 2002. Maize seed has maintained the same share of the total, about 30 percent, over the past ten years. Turf and forage seed places second, at almost $1.6 billion, and oilseed for planting (mostly soybean) a close third at $1.5 billion. These last two segments appear to have enjoyed the most rapid growth since 1992. Unfortunately, the turf and forage seed data is the weakest link at present. The domestic vegetable and melon seed market is believed to be worth about $685 million, up from $506 million in 1992.

The period 1993-98 was one of spectacular growth for the U.S. seed market, especially 1996 and 1997. The introduction and widespread acceptance of biotech soybean seed is a major factor, as many areas switched from farm-saved seed to purchased seed. Relatively slow growth in the U.S. seed market since 1998 is due in large part to intense price competition. Based on the 10-year and 5-year trends in U.S. seed consumption and trade estimates, a domestic market worth over $9 billion by 2010 appears to be a reasonable forecast, and domestic seed production of around $10 billion.

U.S. seed exports represent about 10 percent of production. That proportion has not changed significantly since 1992. Considering that international trade in planting seed faces more phytosanitary and technical barriers than most commodities, is subject to rules governing technology transfer, and has been replaced by local production in many areas due to growing concerns about genetic purity – ten percent is no small share: U.S. seed exports represent about one-fifth of world planting seed trade.